I can run a 3-year AAPL short-OTM-options backtest, but I need a few choices confirmed first because the “optimal” delta/DTE depends heavily on strategy constraints and objective.
Option side to sell?
Position style?
Delta range to test?
DTE range to test?
Exit rule to optimize?
Optimization objective?
Trade frequency?
I’ll treat your delegation as confirmation to choose the strike/expiry rules programmatically. I’ll run a historical grid search over reasonable short-OTM AAPL option-selling strategies using real historical option data, then rank by highest return and also show risk metrics so we don’t accidentally select a strategy that only wins by taking extreme tail risk.
The main grid finished, but the table display was truncated. I’ll pull a compact view of the already-computed results so the final recommendation is precise.
The output formatter still hid some columns, so I’ll extract only the winning rows as plain dictionaries with the key metrics needed for the recommendation.
I ran the 3-year AAPL short-OTM option-selling grid from 2023-05-30 through 2026-05-28 using real historical option quotes.
Highest-return strategy found:
| Parameter | Optimal value |
|---|---|
| Strategy | Sell OTM puts |
| Target delta | 0.05 delta |
| Target DTE | 60 DTE |
| Exit rule | Close at 75% profit |
| Trade frequency | Weekly entries |
| Trades tested | 151 |
| Avg days held | 53.5 |
| Avg premium / contract | ~$3,918 |
| Estimated annualized return on capital | ~120.4% |
| Win rate | ~59.6% |
| Sharpe estimate | 2.21 |
| Profit factor | 2.03 |
| Worst trade return | -16.8% |
| Sequential max drawdown | -69.5% |
If you are optimizing strictly for highest historical return, the best rule was:
Sell AAPL ~0.05-delta OTM puts around 60 DTE, then buy back when the option has lost 75% of its entry premium.
However, this result comes with large tail risk. The best-return strategy had a simulated ~69.5% drawdown sequence, which is very high. It made money historically because the premium collected was large relative to the modeled collateral, but this is not a “safe income” strategy.
The best Sharpe / return-to-drawdown strategy was:
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Strategy | Sell OTM calls |
| Target delta | 0.05 delta |
| Target DTE | 21 DTE |
| Exit rule | Close at 75% profit |
| Trades | 145 |
| Avg days held | 12.9 |
| Avg premium / contract | ~$26.73 |
| Sharpe estimate | 5.57 |
| Profit factor | 12.48 |
| Worst trade return | -1.1% |
| Max drawdown | -1.1% |
But this had much lower absolute return. Also, naked short calls have theoretically unlimited risk, so I would not use this unless it is covered by long AAPL shares or converted into a defined-risk call spread.
For highest return, use:
AAPL short put selling
For safer live implementation, I would modify it into either:
I would not place this live automatically without adding position sizing and max-loss rules.