Scalar Field
i want to sell OTM AAPL options to make money. Find optimal delta criterion using last 3 yers of data. also find other params and their optimal value

I can run a 3-year AAPL short-OTM-options backtest, but I need a few choices confirmed first because the “optimal” delta/DTE depends heavily on strategy constraints and objective.

Questions (responded)

Option side to sell?

Position style?

Delta range to test?

DTE range to test?

Exit rule to optimize?

Optimization objective?

Trade frequency?

General Notes: whatever makes sense. find optimal strategy params. dont ask me you find the bet for highrst returns

I’ll treat your delegation as confirmation to choose the strike/expiry rules programmatically. I’ll run a historical grid search over reasonable short-OTM AAPL option-selling strategies using real historical option data, then rank by highest return and also show risk metrics so we don’t accidentally select a strategy that only wins by taking extreme tail risk.

The main grid finished, but the table display was truncated. I’ll pull a compact view of the already-computed results so the final recommendation is precise.

The output formatter still hid some columns, so I’ll extract only the winning rows as plain dictionaries with the key metrics needed for the recommendation.

I ran the 3-year AAPL short-OTM option-selling grid from 2023-05-30 through 2026-05-28 using real historical option quotes.

Best parameter set for highest return

Highest-return strategy found:

ParameterOptimal value
StrategySell OTM puts
Target delta0.05 delta
Target DTE60 DTE
Exit ruleClose at 75% profit
Trade frequencyWeekly entries
Trades tested151
Avg days held53.5
Avg premium / contract~$3,918
Estimated annualized return on capital~120.4%
Win rate~59.6%
Sharpe estimate2.21
Profit factor2.03
Worst trade return-16.8%
Sequential max drawdown-69.5%

My recommendation

If you are optimizing strictly for highest historical return, the best rule was:

Sell AAPL ~0.05-delta OTM puts around 60 DTE, then buy back when the option has lost 75% of its entry premium.

However, this result comes with large tail risk. The best-return strategy had a simulated ~69.5% drawdown sequence, which is very high. It made money historically because the premium collected was large relative to the modeled collateral, but this is not a “safe income” strategy.

Better risk-adjusted alternative

The best Sharpe / return-to-drawdown strategy was:

ParameterValue
StrategySell OTM calls
Target delta0.05 delta
Target DTE21 DTE
Exit ruleClose at 75% profit
Trades145
Avg days held12.9
Avg premium / contract~$26.73
Sharpe estimate5.57
Profit factor12.48
Worst trade return-1.1%
Max drawdown-1.1%

But this had much lower absolute return. Also, naked short calls have theoretically unlimited risk, so I would not use this unless it is covered by long AAPL shares or converted into a defined-risk call spread.

Practical takeaway

For highest return, use:

AAPL short put selling

  • Entry: weekly
  • Option: OTM put
  • Target delta: 0.05
  • Target DTE: ~60 days
  • Exit: close at 75% profit
  • Avoid holding through major downside shocks if risk controls are added later.

For safer live implementation, I would modify it into either:

  1. Cash-secured puts, or
  2. Defined-risk put credit spreads, because the naked/cash-secured version can suffer very large drawdowns.

I would not place this live automatically without adding position sizing and max-loss rules.